Veteran's Day

Today is Veteran's Day.

Every freedom you enjoy carries with it the weight of millions of lives risked and sacrified to preserve that freedom. Maybe you disapprove of the Iraq war, as I do, or maybe you believe wholeheartedly in that cause. Maybe you've never served in the military or maybe you are a veteran of multiple combat actions. Maybe your mother or father, or son or daughter, or brother or sister is wearing a uniform right now. Maybe you have a friend or family member who made the ultimate sacrifice in defense of the United States. Whereever you may fall in the political or philosophical spectrum, your right to express those opinions and views is, and has been, defended by our men and women in uniform.

God bless those who serve.

"I may disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." --Voltaire

Predictions and Mumme Poll

Not a good week for predictions. 4-2 straight up and 2-4 against the spread.

My Mumme Poll ballot:

Top Five:

Alabama
Florida
Southern California
Texas
Texas Tech

Rest of Top Twelve:

Boise State
Georgia
North Carolina
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Penn State
Utah

Thoughts:

The top five has become pretty easy. No question about Alabama, Florida and TT. Southern Cal has an amazing defense - I would love to see them up against the Texas Tech offense. My only real question in the top five was whether to put Oklahoma or Texas there, but the Longhorns have the better resume.

Most of the 6-12 slots were pretty easy as well. Utah dispatched Texas Christian (I was starting to enjoy the Frog bandwagon) and looks to finish out undefeated.

Boise State is probably going to finish undefeated, but against an atrocious schedule. I have no good reason for ranking them instead of Ball State except history. The Broncos have been good for several years now and have Fiesta Bowl win in their trophy case.

Penn State gives a lesson to everyone: You can't take the teams you should beat for granted. The Nittany Lions are still a very good team, but no longer deserving of the top five. (In contrast with Florida, the Saurians have a better overall resume and Ole Miss is better than Iowa).

Ohio State is starting to look like they were supposed to, and if Penn State slips up agaisnt Michigan State, the Buckeyes could be getting a rematch with Southern Cal.

Georgia seems to have forgotten how to play defense. Seriously, giving up 38 or more points 3 weeks in a row? Not even Tennessee or Mississippi State are doing that. Even so, the dawgs keep winning unless they play a really good team, so I'll put them back in. However, I don't think they are here to stay - I foresee one more loss.

North Carolina keeps their slot with the big win over a pretty decent Georgia Tech squad, and has the inside track to the ACC championship game.

No one from the Big East was even considered, nor was anyone from the ACC other than UNC considered.

Eyes on: Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Ball State, Missouri, Oklahoma State



A thought experiment, just for fun: Imagine if Penn State loses to Michigan State. Whoever wins the Big 12 south loses to Missouri in the championship game. Florida loses to Florida State. Alabama loses to Auburn. Florida beats Alabama in the championship game. Doen't that leave Southern Cal on top? And then who gets picked to play them in Miami? Ohio State, who already got beat down by the Trojans and who has laid a big fat egg in the last two MNC games? Or Utah?


Current BCS bowl projections:

Rose: Southern California vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Texas vs. Utah
Sugar: Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Orange: North Carolina vs. Ohio State

Championship: Florida vs. Texas Tech

Weekend predictions + 10

Predictions for this weekend.

Florida at Vanderbilt. Lessee ... Florida beat UGA and KY by about a bajillion to 5. Really, unless Florida just completely misses the flight to Nasville, the Gators win and easily cover the 24.5

Arkansas at South Carolina. Arkansas is desperately trying to gain some respectability before Bobby Petrino trots off to Clemson, or Washington, or K-State, or Tennessee, or whereever he is going next. SC is trying to get to a good bowl and not make Spurrier look inept. 'Cocks win, but take the hogs and the 10

Georgia at Kentucky. Georgia is coming off the same kind of beatdown that Kentucky is two weeks removed from. Other than that, Kentucky has no offense and a defense that is not as good as its ranking would indicate. Georgia has a very good offense, a fair defense and absolutely no killer instinct. Fortunately, they don't need one this week. Doggies cover 11.5

Alabama at LSU. The Saban bowl. LSU is just not all that good, and Alabama is all that good. Also, Saban is a better coach than Miles. Tide rolls and covers the 3

Georgia Tech at North Carolina. Either everyone in the ACC is really good, or everyone is equally mediocre. I suspect it is the latter. The Tarheels are favored, but the better team always loses in this year's ACC. Tech wins outright, but take the 4 points anyway.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. This week's PS3 game out of the Big 12. The over/under on yards gained has got to be about 950. I will keep picking against the Red Raiders and sooner or later I'll be right. Cowboys win outright, but take the 3.5.

And now, from the iPod:

1. "Thunderhead Hawkins" by Uncle Kracker
2. "Industrial Disease" by Dire Straits
3. "Beat(en) Generation" by The The
4. "Purple Haze" by Jimi Hendrix
5. "Mr. Lincoln" by Hank Williams, Jr.
6. "God of Thunder" by Kiss
7. "Songs for Sonny Liston" by Mark Knopfler
8. "16 Tons" by Tennessee Ernie Ford
9. "Dawn Patrol" by Megadeth
10. "West LA Fadeaway" by Grateful Dead

Obama's win

Even ten years ago I would not have believed that the United States would have an elected black president in my lifetime. I thought that someone like Colin Powell - a moderate conservative with a great military record and a lot of good exposure - might be able to make a run at it. But I would not have expected a win.

Now, Barack Obama is the winner of the general election, and after the electoral college meets he will be the president-elect.

On January 20, 2009 he will take over the reins of the most powerful nation-state in the history of mankind. What does that mean?

Left-wingers see unicorns and rainbows. I saw some woman on the news telling the reporter that if Obama was elected that she would not have to worry about her mortgage or putting gas in the car.

Right-wingers are wailing and gnashing their teeth over the collapse of the United States. They seem to believe that Obama will immediately outlaw conservative broadcasting and commentary and change the form of government to a Stalinist Communist thing. I even heard a couple of co-workers last month discussing whether Obama was more of a Stalinist or a Maoist.

All of these people are idiots.

Obama will be a solidly leftist president, more like LBJ or JFK than Clinton. But he is not Lenin or Mao or Marx (Karl, not Groucho). His voting record supports that, and there is no good reason to believe that he is going to change all that much. He will support increasing the size of the federal government in terms of social programs, he will push for increased taxes on people who earn the most money. He supports, and will continue to support, some sort of socialist health care system. He will likely increase protectionist trade policies and slow down the rush toward unfettered free trade. He seems to have a Washingtonian view of foreign entanglements and adventurism - we can expect a roll-back in the use of American forces overseas.

He will not be instituting taxation for imputed income. He will not putting the United States under Sharia law. He will not be instituting mandatory abortion. He will not be turning over control of the American military to the United Nations. He will not be paying your mortgage for you. He will not be merging America with Canada and Mexico to form a North American Union.

He is inheriting a terrible financial mess, two wars, and a deeply divided electorate. I think that the biggest challenge he will face is the divisions in American society. The American economy is essentially sound and will settle out if it is left mostly alone. The wars are there and have to be dealt with, but they are not really that much of a political challenge. However, the legacy of the last 16 years of right-wing efforts to divide this country and label the other side as the enemy and as traitors is going to take a huge amount of work even to begin to repair. I sincerely hope Obama is the guy to pull it off.

I think Biden was right - President Obama will be tested - hard - probably within the first 6 months he is in office. How he responds will determine the success of his foreign policy for the rest of his term.

A new day is dawning. Let us all hope and/or pray that there is more to Obama than empty rhetoric and pretty speeches - and that he will be up to the challenge of leading the United States deeper into the 21st century.

Predictions and Mumme Poll

Another good week for predictions: 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread, with LSU winning by exactly the 25 pt spread.

Mumme Poll

Top Five:

Alabama
Florida
Penn State
Texas
Texas Tech

Rest of the Top Twelve:

Boise State
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Southern California
Texas Christian
North Carolina

The top five are easy. Georgia is out and Texas Tech is in. I can no longer claim the Red Raiders are a fraud. I still don't think they play defense and can't see them winning against a team that does have a dominant defense, but they do appear to be legit. Texas stays in the top five because, along with Florida, no one has as good a resume among the one-loss teams. Penn State had the easy win against BYE, and remains undefeated. Alabama also had the easy win against lower division Arkansas State and remains undefeated.

As for numbers 6-12: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Southern California and Texas Christian are, at least in my mind, obvious. The last 3 spots are quite a bit more difficult.

I booted Utah for a weak win over New Mexico. Utah's schedule is pathetic and I can't see them putting up much of a fight against, well, anyone good. We'll find out a lot more when they play Texas Christian this weekend.

Boise State also has a weak schedule, but they won big this weekend, so they get to stay.

Now what? I have a bunch of 2-loss BCS teams, a couple of 1-loss teams and Ball State. I am not raking Ball State, I am not, at this point, ranking anyone from the Big East (a mid-major conference masquerading as a big player). Under serious consideration are Georgia, Ohio State, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Missouri

Georgia and Ohio State have almost identical resumes: They have each played two good teams, and lost to both of them. tOSU lost to USC on the road and Penn State at home. Georgia lost to Alabama at home and Florida on the road at a neutral site. The difference is that Georgia has been embarassed by both Florida and Alabama, while Ohio State at least put up a fight against Penn State. Also, Ohio State did not lose this weekend (nice timing on that off week, Buckeyes). Georgia also tried to lose to South Carolina (who is turning out to be not too bad) and gave up scads of yards to LSU. tOSU was less than impressive to start the season, but has improved steadily - and Beanie Wells is healthy and looking to finish out the season strong. So I'll put Ohio State in. There is a very good chance that we will see these two teams in Orlando or Tampa on New Years Day.

Missouri looked weak over Baylor, and, while they seem to be the class of the Big 12 North, I don't see them as being on par with the big 3 from the south.

Georgia Tech? Nice win over Florida State, but the overall resume is not that good. And there is that last-ditch last-second FG win over lower division Gardner-Webb.

North Carolina? Sure, why not? On a good day, UNC is probably the best team in a seriously weak ACC, and I suspect that they would do well playing a Big 1o schedule and do very well playing a Big East schedule. I think I would take the Tar Heels over most SEC teams except Alabama and Florida. Call them about on par with Georgia and LSU, but they have not crapped the bed in quite so dramatic a fashion as the Dawgs and Bayou Bengals have.


Currently predicting BCS bowls as follows:

Sugar: Alabama vs Texas Christian

Orange: North Carolina vs West Virginia

Rose: Southern Cal vs. Texas Tech

Fiesta: Boise State vs. Texas

Championship: Florida vs. Penn State