Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Predictions and Mumme Poll

Another good week for predictions: 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread, with LSU winning by exactly the 25 pt spread.

Mumme Poll

Top Five:

Penn State
Texas Tech

Rest of the Top Twelve:

Boise State
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Southern California
Texas Christian
North Carolina

The top five are easy. Georgia is out and Texas Tech is in. I can no longer claim the Red Raiders are a fraud. I still don't think they play defense and can't see them winning against a team that does have a dominant defense, but they do appear to be legit. Texas stays in the top five because, along with Florida, no one has as good a resume among the one-loss teams. Penn State had the easy win against BYE, and remains undefeated. Alabama also had the easy win against lower division Arkansas State and remains undefeated.

As for numbers 6-12: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Southern California and Texas Christian are, at least in my mind, obvious. The last 3 spots are quite a bit more difficult.

I booted Utah for a weak win over New Mexico. Utah's schedule is pathetic and I can't see them putting up much of a fight against, well, anyone good. We'll find out a lot more when they play Texas Christian this weekend.

Boise State also has a weak schedule, but they won big this weekend, so they get to stay.

Now what? I have a bunch of 2-loss BCS teams, a couple of 1-loss teams and Ball State. I am not raking Ball State, I am not, at this point, ranking anyone from the Big East (a mid-major conference masquerading as a big player). Under serious consideration are Georgia, Ohio State, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Missouri

Georgia and Ohio State have almost identical resumes: They have each played two good teams, and lost to both of them. tOSU lost to USC on the road and Penn State at home. Georgia lost to Alabama at home and Florida on the road at a neutral site. The difference is that Georgia has been embarassed by both Florida and Alabama, while Ohio State at least put up a fight against Penn State. Also, Ohio State did not lose this weekend (nice timing on that off week, Buckeyes). Georgia also tried to lose to South Carolina (who is turning out to be not too bad) and gave up scads of yards to LSU. tOSU was less than impressive to start the season, but has improved steadily - and Beanie Wells is healthy and looking to finish out the season strong. So I'll put Ohio State in. There is a very good chance that we will see these two teams in Orlando or Tampa on New Years Day.

Missouri looked weak over Baylor, and, while they seem to be the class of the Big 12 North, I don't see them as being on par with the big 3 from the south.

Georgia Tech? Nice win over Florida State, but the overall resume is not that good. And there is that last-ditch last-second FG win over lower division Gardner-Webb.

North Carolina? Sure, why not? On a good day, UNC is probably the best team in a seriously weak ACC, and I suspect that they would do well playing a Big 1o schedule and do very well playing a Big East schedule. I think I would take the Tar Heels over most SEC teams except Alabama and Florida. Call them about on par with Georgia and LSU, but they have not crapped the bed in quite so dramatic a fashion as the Dawgs and Bayou Bengals have.

Currently predicting BCS bowls as follows:

Sugar: Alabama vs Texas Christian

Orange: North Carolina vs West Virginia

Rose: Southern Cal vs. Texas Tech

Fiesta: Boise State vs. Texas

Championship: Florida vs. Penn State

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